imon Fraser University 2017 A Year in Review

 

Happy New Year!  I wish you and your families a healthy and prosperous 2018. 

Another year has come and gone and what a year it is has been.  There was significant media attention given to the real estate market in the Lower Mainland.  It felt like not a day went by that some news outlet was reporting something about real estate.  And it was not just about home prices. 

Prices are too high. Debt levels are too high. Vancouver real estate market highest in the world.  And, oh Foreign Buyers, Foreign Buyers, Foreign Buyers!!

So, are prices too high?  Are we carrying too much debt?  Will there be a major correction?  The long and short answer is we really do not know.

To add to all the extra confusion, we have a new mortgage stress test that will apply not just to mortgages with under 20% down payment but as of January 1, 2018 to all new mortgages. 

I think the one thing to take away from all of this is that markets will go up and markets will go down.  Real Estate in Vancouver is an interesting topic.

The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market in 2017, in my opinion, can be summarized in two words: Low Inventory.

Although sales trended to more historically normal levels compared to 2015 and 2016, a decrease of 9.9% over 2016 and 15% decrease over 2015, listings were much lower.  2017 sales were still 9.7% above the 10-year average.  However, listings were off by 5.1% over 2016 and 4.5% over 2015.  Or 4.4% below the 10-year average.

This all translated to an increase of price of 15.9% over 2016 according to the Home Price Index (“HPI”).

Specifically looking at the Simon Fraser University (“SFU”), 2017 saw an amazing unprecedented rise of 22.3% according to the HPI.  That is a 5% increase over 2016.  During 2015 the market in SFU increased by only 12.5%.  So, between 2016 and 2017, SFU prices have appreciated a whopping 40.7%.  Congratulations if you were one of the lucky ones that got in the market. 

Click here for the Home Price Index

There was a total of 168 sales registered through the MLS system, including resale and presale construction.  This is an approximate decrease of 17% compared to 2016.  Given that we now have approximately 1750 resale units on the market, 168 sales represent only 4% of the entire available stock in 2017.

Here is a summary of 2017 vs. 2016 performance for SFU, UniverCity

	2017	2016	% Difference
Number of Sales	168	203	-17%
Avg. Price	$495,024	$423,659	16.8%
Avg. cost per sqft	$578	$495	16.8%
Avg. Days on Market	27	37	-27%

                                    

This brings us to current market conditions on the mountain.  Inventory levels are incredibly low.  There are presently only 12 units for sale as of January 15, 2017. Prices range from $418,000 for a 710sqft, 2 bed and 1 bath home to a 1,141sqft, 2 bed and 2 bath penthouse that is under construction at the Terraces by InterGulf listed at $1,499,000.

Low inventory levels and strong demand coupled with a milder than normal winter are all signs that UniverCity at Simon Fraser University should perform well in Q1 of 2018.  Activity has already been very good at open houses in my personal experience. 

Contact us now if you have any questions about the market in general or specifically if you would like to learn more about the Simon Fraser University area.