The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) broke a string of two consecutive declines, eking out a 0.1 point increase to an index value of 120.0 in the fourth quarter of 2015. On a year-over-year basis, the CLI was 0.4 per cent higher than in 2014.
Although the trend in the CLI is currently pointing to a neutral economic and financial environment for commercial real estate, the overall BC economy remains strong, particularly in comparison to its neighboring provinces.
“Financial market jitters offset solid gains from a strong BC economy,” said BCREA economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect that the economic environment will remain supportive of steady growth in the commercial real estate market.”
The CLI was virtually flat to end the year, which in combination with a falling index through the spring and summer has produced a flattening of trend underlying the index. That trend suggests that growth in commercial real estate activity will neither accelerate nor decelerate over the next two to four quarters.