Canada’s housing markets remain highly vulnerable¹ with evidence of moderate overvaluation and price acceleration, according to  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). After a boost in residential construction in 2017, housing starts are projected to decline by 2019, but to remain close to the average level from the last 5 years.

This analysis is from two key CMHC reports released today: the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) and Housing Market Outlook (HMO).

CMHC’s HMA continues to find housing markets in Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver, Victoria...

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

Inflation has picked up in recent months, as anticipated in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting stronger economic activity and higher gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation have edged up, in line with a narrowing output gap and the diminishing effects of lower food prices. The Bank projects inflation will rise to 2 per cent in the second half of 2018. This is a little later than anticipated in July...

After back-to-back interest rates hikes, the Bank of Canada can stay on the sidelines for longer than first anticipated, with tighter mortgage rules slowing the housing market and uncertainty about NAFTA clouding the outlook.

While more rate increases are on the horizon, possibly before the end of the year, the central bank is expected to hold rates at 1 percent on Wednesday as the list of unknowns and a moderating economy force policymakers to watch and wait.

© REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo FILE PHOTO - A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa 

The unknown...

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,340 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, an increase of 9.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.8 billion, up 30.2 per cent from September 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $693,774, up 18.5 per cent from September 2016. 

“BC home sales rose nearly 5 per cent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Total active listings...

Vancouver’s skyline.

Darrryl Dyck/For The Globe and Mail  

Court records and advertisements reveal several ways potential buyers and realtors are eyeing as ways around the 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers, reports Xiao Xu

British Columbia's introduction of a foreign-buyer real-estate tax dumped a bucket of icy water on Vancouver's smoking hot market just over a year ago. Average house prices immediately fell, declining for six months before showing signs of renewed vitality in April and May.

A Globe and Mail examination of court records and advertisements reveals...

The trend in housing starts was 214,821 units in September 2017, compared to 220,573 units in August 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Housing starts are trending lower in September after increasing for eight consecutive months,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “Nevertheless, new home construction remains very strong as the seasonally adjusted number of starts was above 200,000 units for four straight months'....

The author of Millionaire Migrants was one the first to provide evidence that the foreign real-estate dreams of China’s wealthy have arguably had more impact than anything on Metro Vancouver’s housing unaffordability.

UBC geographer David Ley, along with SFU’s Wu Qiyan, told me early this year the city’s real-estate bubble would be punctured when leaders of the People’s Republic of China further restrict money leaving their country.

Now strong signs are appearing that Metro Vancouver’s real-estate balloon has indeed been pricked by China’s heightened...

Apartment and townhome activity is outpacing the detached home market across Metro Vancouver*. This activity helped push total residential sales above the historical average in September.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 2,821 in September 2017, a 25.2 per cent increase from the 2,253 sales recorded in September 2016, and a 7.3 per cent decrease compared to August 2017 when 3,043 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 13.1 per cent above the 10-year September sales average.

“Our detached homes market is balanced...