Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is finding strong evidence of problematic conditions for Canada overall. Home prices have risen ahead of economic fundamentals such as personal disposable income and population growth, resulting in overvaluation in many Canadian housing markets. However, the combination of overvaluation and overbuilding should help slow the growth in resales and house prices and lead to a moderation in the pace of housing starts.

This analysis is the result of combined insight from two major CMHC reports published concurrently for the first time, today: the Housing...

The Bank of Canada announced on October 19^th, 2016 that it was keeping its trend-setting target overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

The announcement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report (MPR) indicated that:

• Canadian economic growth will be lower than previously expected, “due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower [growth] trajectory for exports.”
• The economy is now on track to “[return] to full capacity around mid-2018,” which is “materially later than Bank had anticipated in July.”
• Recently tightened mortgage regulations...

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected.

Looking through the choppiness...

The decline in home sales in Vancouver which seems to have been exacerbated by the tax on foreign buyers, does not reflect the wider provincial housing market.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association says that, although there are other cities showing declining sales, there are also areas showing continued growth.

"Housing demand in the province continued to trend lower in September," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While Vancouver, Fraser Valley and the North experienced year-over-year declines last month, the rest of the province posted an increase in the number of residential tr...

Forget all the housing crash talk says a new report that suggests prices acceleration in Canada’s housing market will slow down without any hard landing.

Moody’s Analytics, which used the Brookfield RPS house price index for its models, maintains that prices in Canada will slow down as some markets, especially Vancouver and Toronto, see homes become overvalued and less affordable while international capital inflows slow down.

“We are predicting that the housing market will slow down, in terms of house price growth, significantly,” said Andrew Carbacho-Burgos, an economist...

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,591 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, down 11.2 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.45 billion in September, down 14.1 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $585,844, a decline of 3.2 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Housing demand in the province continued to trend lower in September,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA...

According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales edged slightly higher in September 2016 compared to August.

Highlights:

• National home sales edged up 0.8% from August to September.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September rose 4.2% year-over-year (y-o-y).
• The number of newly listed homes ticked up 0.5% from August to September.
• The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) in September was up 14.4% y-o-y.
• The national average sale price climbed 9.5% y-o-y.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS^® Systems rose...

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 199,503 units in September compared to 196,465 in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Housing starts were on an upward trend in September, as residential construction increased across the country with the exception of Ontario, where the multiples segment softened to levels that are more consistent with household formation," said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. “Quebec saw the largest gain...

Metro Vancouver* home sales dipped below the 10- year monthly sales average last month. This is the first time this has occurred in the region since May 2014.

Metro Vancouver home sales totalled 2,253 in September 2016, a decrease of 32.6 per cent from the 3,345 sales recorded in September 2015 and a decrease of 9.5 per cent compared to August 2016 when 2,489 homes sold. 

Last month’s sales were 9.6 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“Supply and demand conditions differ today depending on property type,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president...