RSS

A Wake-Up Call for Canadian Investors: The Housing Market Can Crash

Search “Canadian Housing Market Bubble” on the internet. Just do it.

Despite warnings from banks worldwide and within Canada, reports from economic think tanks, a slew of data, and unbiased analysis, I still come across articles written largely by Canadian institutions or investors with a vested interest in not only maintaining but growing the Canadian housing bubble. Whether it is a real estate association or a group of investors with long positions in risky real estate stocks, some people just don’t want to see what is right in front of them. What’s worse, these same people are creating a bubble that will be even more catastrophic when the time comes for the market to correct.

Canadians are conservative; many think a crash could never happen because finance and economics are just better in Canada. The Canadian housing market is fundamentally different than the U.S. market. Because the Canadian market is smaller and “more regionalized” than the U.S. market and driven by “local factors" more so than in the United States, a housing crash is out of the question. There may be a small correction, but never a complete crash.Many Canadians I’ve spoken to love to point the finger at their U.S. counterparts, noting that it was largely hubris that drove the financial crisis of 2007/08. Everyone in the U.S. believed the housing market would continue to go up forever. Real estate agents and lenders were incentivized to provide financing to people who shouldn’t have received it. Lending was less strict, and the party got out of control.

Canada is most certainly not exactly the same as the U.S., but if you were to pick two countries in the world that were the most similar, it would be hard to find two markets that resembled each other more on a fundamental level.

The reality is, right now, the household debt levels of Canadians are much worse than those in the U.S. before the housing crash. High levels of foreign investment in Canada’s real estate market mean that a significant percentage of loans made with Canadian banks could be reneged on should the foreign investors stand to lose more than their down payments, making the potential for a “cascading waterfall” of foreclosures similar to what happened in the U.S. much more likely.

If you are someone who considers the likelihood of a Canadian housing market crash more than an impossibility, it might make sense to take a look at a few of the companies that could be hit first or hit hardest. Take a look at my recent article on Home Capital Group Inc. (TSX:HCG) for an example of one play that could at least provide portfolio insurance should things turn sour.

My advice: stay wary of those who say that an economic event that occurs every few decades is an impossibility. The market will correct itself, and when it does, make sure you’re insured.

Stay Foolish, my friends.

Two New Stock Picks Every Month!

Not to alarm you, but you're about to miss a very important event! Chief Investment Adviser Iain Butler and his team at Stock Advisor Canada are about to reveal their latest official stock recommendation. The premium "buy alert" will be unveiled to members and you can be among the first to act on the tip.

Don't let this opportunity pass you by - this is your chance to get in early!

Click here to find out how you can get instant access!

 Fool contributor Chris MacDonald has no position in any stocks mentioned. 

Simon Fraser
Market Update

Simon Fraser Condos

Altaire by Polygon

Altaire built in 2008/2009 reaches higher then any other condo building in Metro Vancouver offering panoramic views.

Novo I by Intergulf

Novo I built in 2007 known for the amazing sight lines and views from most units and balconies up to 1000 sq ft.

Novo II by Intergulf

Novo II built in 2007 known for the amazing sight lines and views from most units and balconies up to 1000 sq ft.

Aurora by Polygon

Aurora built in 2006 with 103 condos featuring 36 unique floor plans ranging from 715 sq ft to 1500 sq ft.

One University by Millennium

One University built in 2005 is UniverCity's flagship building with luxury homes featuring semi private elevators.

Harmony by Polygon

Harmony built in 2005 was the first condo development at Univercity & as a result offers a unique setting & views.

Serenity Townhomes by Polygon

Serenity is a collection of 2 bedroom townhomes of 1100 sq ft ranging to 4 bedroom 2000+ sq ft townhomes.

The Hub by Liberty Homes

The Hub built in 2009 is set atop Nester's Grocery and steps from High Street giving these homes an urban feel.

Verdant by VanCity Enterprises

Verdant is a two storey town home building built with environmental design and stylish living spaces which complement the modern exterior of these SFU homes.

Origin by Porte Development

Origin is designed by GBL Architect & BYU Interior Designs, developed by Porte Development Corp. and marketed by Red Dot Real Estate.

Nest by Mosaic

Located on UniverCity High Street across from the new University Highlands elementary schools this refreshing building will add further depth to a growing community.

Highland House by Liberty Homes

A 12-storey concrete high-rise development and targeted towards Rental Investors and First-Time Condo Buyers.

Lift by Porte Development

Lift will be a wood frame building comprising of 56 homes. Building technologies, environmental features, and price points should be similar to Origin.

Altitude by Hungerford Group

Altitude will be a 2 tower development comprising of a 12 and 14 story building with a total of 210 strata units.

CentreBlock by Liberty Homes

CentreBlock at UniverCity atop Burnaby Mountain is the latest condo project with sales commencing early 2014. .

Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.